Skip to content

Der Global Risks Index

Hazard Standard · 124 hazards

Gesundheit und Biosicherheit

Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems.

Seite GRX-HAZ-HEALTHAusgabe Basisausgabe 2026Evidenzschluss 2026-09-30Werte noch nicht veröffentlichtMethode v1.0.0-draft
Hazard Standard · Health and biosecurity
Herkunft
hybrid88
anthropogenic24
natural12
onset
progressive38
rapid33
slow27
creeping25
instantaneous1
predictability
statistical78
seasonal22
unpredictable14
forecastable5
nowcast-only5
21
families
124
Gefahren
260
Beziehungen
76
risk-class tags

01Familien

21 families, 124 hazards

Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems. Organised by biosphere; families by transmission route and host.

Airborne and respiratory infection health.respiratory

Infections spread through the air between people: the fastest-moving and widest-reaching outbreak type, so each hazard here is read at country scale or larger.

Respiratory pandemichealth.respiratory.pandemic

Worldwide spread of a respiratory virus to which most people have little immunity, overwhelming health systems and disrupting economies.

Also: novel virus pandemic, pandemic influenza

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · unpredictableGlobal riskCatastrophic riskExponential risk
Seasonal influenza epidemichealth.respiratory.seasonal-influenza

Yearly waves of influenza that fill clinics and hospitals and kill mainly the elderly and the frail.

Also: flu season

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · seasonal
Zoonotic influenza spilloverhealth.respiratory.zoonotic-influenza

Influenza viruses from birds or pigs infecting people, with the risk of adapting to spread from person to person.

Also: avian influenza in people, swine influenza

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Coronavirus outbreakhealth.respiratory.coronavirus-outbreak

An outbreak of a severe or novel coronavirus with person-to-person spread and a risk of severe respiratory illness.

Also: SARS-type outbreak, MERS-type outbreak, COVID-type outbreak

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · unpredictable
Tuberculosis surgehealth.respiratory.tuberculosis-surge

Rising or drug-resistant tuberculosis, a slowly spreading airborne bacterial disease, often in crowded or poor settings.

Also: drug-resistant tuberculosis

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Bacterial meningitis outbreakhealth.respiratory.bacterial-meningitis

Clusters of meningitis from bacteria spread by close contact, which kills quickly without treatment and recurs in dry-season belts.

Also: meningococcal outbreak

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal

Vaccine-preventable outbreaks health.vaccine-preventable

Outbreaks that exist only where immunisation has failed: grouped by system role, since the common driver is a coverage gap rather than the pathogen.

Measles outbreakhealth.vaccine-preventable.measles-outbreak

Spread of the highly contagious measles virus among under-vaccinated groups, with complications and deaths in children.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Polio outbreakhealth.vaccine-preventable.polio-outbreak

Transmission of poliovirus, including vaccine-derived strains, causing paralysis where immunisation is low.

Also: poliovirus

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Diphtheria and whooping cough outbreakhealth.vaccine-preventable.bacterial-vaccine-preventable

Resurgence of toxin-mediated diphtheria or epidemic whooping cough, most dangerous to infants, where immunity has lapsed.

Also: diphtheria, pertussis

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Other vaccine-preventable outbreakhealth.vaccine-preventable.other-vaccine-preventable

An outbreak of another disease that vaccines prevent, such as mumps, rubella or varicella, after an immunisation gap.

Also: mumps, rubella, chickenpox

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical

Faecal-oral and foodborne infection health.enteric

Infections spread by contaminated water, food and hands: they follow floods, sanitation failure, displacement and food distribution, so they are strongly linked to water and infrastructure hazards.

Cholera outbreakhealth.enteric.cholera-outbreak

Acute watery diarrhoea from Vibrio cholerae in contaminated water, killing within hours without rehydration.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Typhoid and paratyphoid feverhealth.enteric.enteric-fever

Systemic Salmonella infection from contaminated food and water, endemic where sanitation is poor.

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Shigellosis and dysentery outbreakhealth.enteric.shigellosis

Bloody diarrhoea from Shigella spreading through contaminated water, food and close contact.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Viral diarrhoea outbreakhealth.enteric.viral-diarrhoea

Rotavirus, norovirus and similar viruses causing vomiting and diarrhoea, especially in children, institutions and camps.

Also: rotavirus, norovirus

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Faecal-oral hepatitis outbreakhealth.enteric.hepatitis-a-e

Hepatitis A or E virus spreading through contaminated water and food, often after floods or in displacement camps.

Also: hepatitis A, hepatitis E

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Foodborne illness outbreakhealth.enteric.foodborne-outbreak

A cluster of illness traced to a common contaminated food, which can span regions through distribution networks.

Also: food poisoning outbreak, listeria, salmonella, E. coli outbreak.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictable
Waterborne disease outbreakhealth.enteric.waterborne-outbreak

A cluster of illness from drinking or contact with contaminated water, often after floods, treatment failure or mains breaks.

Also: cryptosporidium outbreak, drinking water outbreak

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical

Vector-borne infection health.vector-borne

Infections carried by insects, ticks and other vectors: climate, land use and water management set where and when they occur, so they respond to atmospheric and water hazards with a lag.

Dengue epidemichealth.vector-borne.dengue-epidemic

Mosquito-borne dengue virus waves in warm, urban areas, with a risk of severe illness on repeat infection.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Chikungunya and Zika outbreakhealth.vector-borne.aedes-arbovirus

Viruses such as chikungunya and Zika spreading where Aedes mosquitoes breed, causing joint pain and birth defects.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Yellow fever outbreakhealth.vector-borne.yellow-fever

A mosquito-borne haemorrhagic virus, preventable by vaccination, that flares in forest and urban cycles.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
West Nile and Culex-borne virus outbreakhealth.vector-borne.culex-arbovirus

Bird-reservoir viruses, such as West Nile, spread by Culex mosquitoes and causing neurological disease in late summer.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Malaria resurgencehealth.vector-borne.malaria-resurgence

Rising malaria transmission after climate shifts, conflict, funding gaps or drug and insecticide resistance.

Also: malaria

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · seasonal
Plague outbreakhealth.vector-borne.plague-outbreak

A flea-borne bacterial disease from rodent reservoirs, bubonic or pneumonic, lethal without antibiotics.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictable
Trypanosomiasis outbreakhealth.vector-borne.trypanosomiasis

Sleeping sickness or Chagas disease carried by tsetse flies or triatomine bugs, with an animal form that kills livestock.

Also: sleeping sickness, Chagas disease

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Tick-borne disease surgehealth.vector-borne.tick-borne

Rising Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis and related infections as ticks spread into new areas.

Also: Lyme disease

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Neglected tropical disease outbreakhealth.vector-borne.neglected-tropical-surge

Resurgence of parasitic, bacterial and viral diseases of poverty, such as leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis and leprosy, in neglected populations.

Also: leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis, leprosy

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Emerging arbovirus outbreakhealth.vector-borne.emerging-arbovirus

Outbreaks of insect-borne viruses that were rare or local and are now spreading to new populations, often with little testing and no vaccine.

Also: Oropouche outbreak, novel mosquito-borne virus, midge-borne virus outbreak.

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · continentPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk

Haemorrhagic fever health.haemorrhagic

Severe viral fevers with bleeding and high fatality, spread by body fluids, rodents or ticks, where care settings and funerals amplify outbreaks.

Ebola and Marburg outbreakhealth.haemorrhagic.filovirus

Highly lethal filovirus outbreaks spread by body fluids and in care settings, needing isolation and rapid contact tracing.

Also: Ebola, Marburg

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictable
Lassa fever outbreakhealth.haemorrhagic.lassa-fever

A rodent-borne arenavirus fever, seasonal in West Africa, spread by contaminated food and in health facilities.

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever outbreakhealth.haemorrhagic.crimean-congo

A tick-borne virus reaching farmers, abattoir workers and health staff through livestock and body fluids.

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal

Blood-borne and sexually transmitted infection health.bloodborne

Infections spread through blood and intimate contact: slow, chronic and shaped by service access, so they behave as long-running burdens rather than events.

HIV epidemichealth.bloodborne.hiv-epidemic

Sustained HIV transmission that, untreated, destroys immunity, driven by gaps in access, stigma and exclusion of key populations.

Also: AIDS

Origin · naturalOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Chronic viral hepatitis B and C burdenhealth.bloodborne.viral-hepatitis-bc

Long-term blood-borne hepatitis infections that cause liver cancer and failure, spread through unsafe injections, transfusions and birth.

Origin · naturalOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Sexually transmitted infection resurgencehealth.bloodborne.sti-resurgence

Rising syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia, including drug-resistant strains, when testing and prevention lapse.

Also: syphilis, gonorrhoea

Origin · naturalOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical

Animal-to-human spillover health.zoonotic

Infections that cross from animals to people through farming, wildlife contact, trade or the environment; they sit between the human, animal and ecosystem health sectors, so they link to the animal-health and ecosystem families.

Zoonotic spillover eventhealth.zoonotic.spillover-event

A pathogen crossing from animals to people, through wildlife trade, farming, hunting or habitat change, with the potential to establish human transmission.

Also: emerging zoonosis, Q fever, cysticercosis

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictableGlobal riskEmerging riskExponential risk
Anthrax outbreakhealth.zoonotic.anthrax-outbreak

A spore-forming bacterial disease of livestock and wildlife that infects people through contact with carcasses, hides and meat.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Brucellosis outbreakhealth.zoonotic.brucellosis-outbreak

A bacterial infection passed from livestock to people through raw milk and animal contact, causing long fevers.

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Rabies outbreakhealth.zoonotic.rabies-outbreak

A fatal viral disease spread by bites from infected dogs and wildlife, preventable by vaccinating animals and giving post-exposure care.

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Leptospirosis outbreakhealth.zoonotic.leptospirosis-outbreak

A rodent-urine bacterial infection spreading in floodwater and wet farmland, causing fever and kidney and liver failure.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Mpox outbreakhealth.zoonotic.mpox-outbreak

A poxvirus passing from animals to people and then by close contact, with painful lesions and added risk for the immunocompromised.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Rift Valley fever outbreakhealth.zoonotic.rift-valley-fever

A mosquito- and contact-borne virus causing livestock abortion storms and human fever after heavy rain in dry regions.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Nipah and henipavirus outbreakhealth.zoonotic.henipavirus

Bat-borne viruses that jump to people via contaminated food or animals and cause deadly brain infections.

Also: Nipah

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal

Rare and persistent human infections health.other-human

Low-frequency infections whose risk is dominated by consequence: contact-transmitted or slow-incubating agents that need special surveillance.

Prion disease clusterhealth.other-human.prion-disease

A cluster of fatal, untreatable brain diseases caused by misfolded proteins, linked to food, medical procedures or animal feed.

Also: mad cow disease

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictable
Smallpox reintroductionhealth.other-human.smallpox-return

Return of an eradicated, highly lethal poxvirus from a laboratory or a deliberate release into a population with no immunity.

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · unpredictable

Livestock and aquaculture epizootics health.animal-health

Transboundary disease of farmed animals: the hazard is the culling, trade closure and food-supply shock that follow, so the family is read with food and economy contexts.

Swine fever epizootichealth.animal-health.swine-fever

African or classical swine fever sweeping pig herds, with mass culls, trade bans and little or no treatment.

Also: African swine fever, classical swine fever

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Foot-and-mouth epizootichealth.animal-health.foot-and-mouth

A highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals that halts livestock trade and forces culls.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Ruminant respiratory epizootichealth.animal-health.ruminant-respiratory

Pleuropneumonia or plague outbreaks among cattle, goats and sheep that kill herds and threaten pastoral livelihoods.

Also: pleuropneumonia, small ruminant plague

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Vector-borne livestock diseasehealth.animal-health.vector-livestock-disease

Insect-transmitted livestock diseases, such as lumpy skin disease, that spread with biting flies and seasonal climate.

Also: lumpy skin disease

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Poultry epizootichealth.animal-health.poultry-epizootic

Newcastle disease or avian influenza sweeping poultry flocks, with mass culling and shocks to egg and meat supply.

Also: Newcastle disease, avian flu in flocks

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Screwworm infestationhealth.animal-health.screwworm-infestation

Flesh-eating fly larvae infesting wounds of livestock, wildlife and people, spreading with animal trade and warmth.

Also: myiasis

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Aquaculture disease outbreakhealth.animal-health.aquaculture-disease

Pathogens, such as shellfish and shrimp diseases, spreading through farmed stocks and killing them in large numbers.

Also: shrimp disease, oyster disease

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Livestock disease outbreakhealth.animal-health.livestock-disease

An outbreak of a non-zoonotic animal disease not covered by a more specific hazard, cutting herd health and output.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical

Plant disease and pests health.plant-health

Threats to crop and wild plant health from microbes, insects and invading species; the impact reaches food and ecosystem contexts.

Bacterial and fungal crop diseasehealth.plant-health.crop-disease

Epidemics of bacterial or fungal plant disease, such as rusts and blights, that destroy yields over large areas.

Also: rust, blight, wilt

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Plant virus epidemichealth.plant-health.plant-virus

Viral, phytoplasma or viroid disease spread by insects and cuttings that stunts crops and has no cure.

Also: phytoplasma, viroid

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Crop insect pest outbreakhealth.plant-health.insect-pest-outbreak

Population explosions of insect pests that strip crops and stored grain over wide areas.

Also: armyworm, pest infestation

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Locust swarmhealth.plant-health.locust-swarm

Dense migrating swarms of locusts that devour crops and pasture across borders.

Also: desert locust

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · forecastable
Invasive species spreadhealth.plant-health.invasive-species

A non-native plant, animal or microbe spreading unchecked and displacing natives, damaging farming, fisheries and ecosystems.

Also: invasive weed, alien species

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskExponential risk

Systemic biological risks health.systemic-bio

Risks that weaken the whole defence against infection or release agents deliberately; they raise the consequence of every other health hazard.

Antimicrobial resistancehealth.systemic-bio.antimicrobial-resistance

Spread of microbes that no longer respond to medicines, making routine infections and surgery dangerous.

Also: drug-resistant infection, superbug

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskCatastrophic riskExponential risk
Deliberate or accidental biological-agent releasehealth.systemic-bio.biological-agent-release

Intentional or accidental release of a pathogen or toxin, as a weapon or from a research, vaccine or production setting.

Also: bioterrorism, laboratory escape

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictableGlobal riskCatastrophic riskExistential riskFrontier technology risk

Environmental and product harm to people health.harm

Direct, non-infectious harm that arrives through the environment or the marketplace; grouped by system role because each is a failure of a protective system (wildlife safety, medicine quality, alcohol and drug control).

Snakebite envenominghealth.harm.snakebite

Bites from venomous snakes that kill or maim farm workers and children where antivenom and transport are scarce, and rise when floods push snakes into homes.

Also: snake bite

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · districtPredictability · statistical
Substandard and falsified medicineshealth.harm.substandard-medicines

Medical products of poor quality or deliberately fake that fail to treat illness, cause poisoning and drive drug resistance.

Also: counterfeit medicine

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Adulterated alcohol poisoninghealth.harm.toxic-alcohol

Mass poisoning from drinks adulterated with methanol or other toxic industrial alcohols.

Also: methanol poisoning

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · districtPredictability · unpredictable
Overdose epidemichealth.harm.overdose-epidemic

Waves of deaths from opioids and other addictive substances, driven by potent synthetics and gaps in treatment.

Also: opioid crisis

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical

Climate-sensitive illness health.climate-sensitive

Illness that rises directly with weather and climate, as distinct from the weather hazards themselves; health systems warn and act on these through heat-health, allergy and vector programmes.

Heat-related illness surgehealth.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge

A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.

Also: heatstroke surge, heat exhaustion, heat-related deaths

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · forecastableGlobal risk
Cold-related illness surgehealth.climate-sensitive.cold-illness-surge

A rise in hypothermia, heart attacks, strokes and respiratory illness during cold spells, worst among people in poorly heated homes or without shelter.

Also: hypothermia, excess winter deaths

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · forecastable
Disease vector range expansionhealth.climate-sensitive.vector-range-expansion

Spread of mosquitoes, ticks and other disease carriers into higher latitudes and altitudes as climate warms and trade moves them, exposing new populations to infection.

Also: invasive mosquito spread, tick range expansion, vector shift to higher latitudes.

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · continentPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Aeroallergen season intensificationhealth.climate-sensitive.aeroallergen-intensification

Longer and stronger pollen seasons and spread of allergenic plants under warming and higher carbon dioxide, worsening allergy and asthma.

Also: pollen surge, hay fever season lengthening, allergenic pollen.

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · continentPredictability · seasonalEmerging risk
Warm-water bacterial infectionhealth.climate-sensitive.warm-water-bacterial-infection

Severe wound and gut infections from bacteria that thrive in warming coastal and brackish waters, spreading to coasts where they were once rare.

Also: vibriosis, seawater wound infection

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonalEmerging risk

Drug and insecticide resistance by pathogen class health.drug-resistance

Loss of the medicines and insecticides that control infection, split by broad class of organism so that each can be tracked; together they erode modern medicine.

Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spreadhealth.drug-resistance.resistant-bacterial-infection

Spread of bacterial infections that resist most or all available antibiotics, turning common infections, childbirth and surgery into life-threatening events.

Also: last-resort antibiotic resistance, pan-resistant bacteria

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskCatastrophic riskExponential risk
Antiviral drug resistancehealth.drug-resistance.antiviral-resistance

Viruses that no longer respond to standard antiviral medicines, causing treatment failure and onward spread of resistant strains.

Also: HIV drug resistance, antiviral failure

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Antimalarial and antiparasitic drug resistancehealth.drug-resistance.antiparasitic-resistance

Parasites that escape the medicines used to cure malaria and other parasitic diseases, raising deaths and threatening elimination efforts.

Also: antimalarial resistance, treatment-resistant malaria

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · continentPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Antifungal drug resistancehealth.drug-resistance.antifungal-resistance

Fungal infections that resist the few available antifungal medicines, partly driven by fungicide use in farming, leaving vulnerable patients without treatment.

Also: drug-resistant fungal infection

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Insecticide resistance in disease vectorshealth.drug-resistance.insecticide-resistance

Mosquitoes and other vectors that survive the insecticides used in bed nets and spraying, weakening control of malaria, dengue and other diseases.

Also: mosquito insecticide resistance, vector control failure

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · continentPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Antimicrobial development and supply failurehealth.drug-resistance.antimicrobial-pipeline-failure

Too few new antimicrobials reaching patients, and fragile supply of old ones, because development is unprofitable, leaving resistance to outpace treatment.

Also: empty antibiotic pipeline, antibiotic shortage

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk

Emerging and unknown infection threats health.emerging

Infection threats defined by novelty or by the setting in which they spread rather than by a known agent; grouped because they need early detection and broad readiness rather than agent-specific plans.

Unknown future pathogen emergencehealth.emerging.unknown-pathogen-emergence

Emergence of a not-yet-known infectious disease, by any route of spread, able to cause a serious international epidemic before tests, treatments or vaccines exist.

Also: Disease X, pathogen X, novel pathogen epidemic.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · unpredictableGlobal riskCatastrophic riskEmerging riskExponential risk
Emerging fungal pathogenhealth.emerging.fungal-pathogen-emergence

New or newly dangerous fungal infections in people, often hard to diagnose and treat, spreading in hospitals and among people with weakened immunity as climate and medicine change.

Also: emerging fungal disease, invasive fungal infection outbreak.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Endemic fungal disease range expansionhealth.emerging.endemic-fungal-range-expansion

Spread of soil-living fungal diseases into new regions as warming and drying shift their habitat, causing lung infections where doctors are unprepared.

Also: valley fever spread, soil fungus range shift.

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · continentPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk
Healthcare-associated infection outbreakhealth.emerging.healthcare-associated-outbreak

Outbreaks of infection that spread within hospitals, clinics or care homes through contaminated equipment, hands or water, harming already vulnerable patients.

Also: hospital-acquired infection outbreak, nosocomial outbreak, care-home outbreak.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · districtPredictability · nowcast-only
Undiagnosed illness clusterhealth.emerging.undiagnosed-illness-cluster

A cluster of serious illness or deaths with no identified cause, needing rapid investigation because it may signal a new infection or poisoning.

Also: unknown disease cluster, mystery illness

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · districtPredictability · unpredictableEmerging risk

Maternal, newborn and child health emergencies health.maternal-child

Failures in the care that protects pregnancy, birth and early childhood; they sit together because the same services, supplies and staff guard against all of them.

Maternal mortality risehealth.maternal-child.maternal-mortality-rise

A rise in deaths of women during pregnancy and childbirth when skilled birth care, blood, emergency surgery or transport become unavailable.

Also: maternal death surge, obstetric emergency care loss.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Newborn mortality surgehealth.maternal-child.newborn-mortality-surge

An increase in deaths of babies in their first month from infection, birth complications and prematurity when newborn care breaks down.

Also: neonatal death surge, neonatal sepsis

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Preterm and low birthweight birth risehealth.maternal-child.adverse-birth-outcome-rise

More babies born early, small or stillborn as heat, air pollution, malnutrition and stress affect pregnancies, with lifelong effects on survivors.

Also: preterm birth rise, low birthweight, stillbirth rise.

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk
Childhood immunisation coverage collapsehealth.maternal-child.immunisation-coverage-collapse

A fall in routine childhood vaccination because services, outreach or funding fail, leaving cohorts of unprotected children and seeding outbreaks.

Also: zero-dose children, missed vaccinations, routine immunisation backsliding.

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Infant feeding disruptionhealth.maternal-child.infant-feeding-disruption

Loss of safe infant feeding when breastfeeding support collapses, formula runs short or safe water is lost, putting infants at risk of malnutrition and infection.

Also: infant formula shortage, breastfeeding disruption

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · nowcast-only
Reproductive health service disruptionhealth.maternal-child.reproductive-service-disruption

Loss of contraception, antenatal care and safe delivery services in crises or funding cuts, leading to unintended pregnancies, unsafe births and maternal deaths.

Also: contraceptive stockout, family planning service loss

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical

Mental health crises health.mental

Population-level rises in psychological distress and mental illness that follow shocks, isolation or social change; grouped because they share drivers and the same thin care systems.

Population mental distress surgehealth.mental.population-distress-surge

A sharp rise in anxiety, depression and distress across a population after a pandemic, war, economic collapse or disaster, overwhelming scarce mental health services.

Also: collective trauma, mass psychological distress, Population mental-health crisis, mental health emergency, psychological trauma burden.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Post-disaster traumatic stresshealth.mental.post-disaster-trauma

Lasting traumatic stress and grief among survivors, responders and displaced people after disasters or violence, impairing recovery, work and family life.

Also: post-traumatic stress, disaster trauma, PTSD after disaster.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Suicide rate risehealth.mental.suicide-rate-rise

A sustained rise in suicide across a population or group, often linked to economic hardship, isolation, debt, heat or access to lethal means.

Also: suicide epidemic, rising suicide deaths

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Youth mental health crisishealth.mental.youth-mental-health-crisis

Rising depression, anxiety, self-harm and eating disorders among children and young people, linked to social pressures, online harms and disrupted schooling.

Also: adolescent mental health crisis, child mental health emergency.

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Climate-related psychological distresshealth.mental.climate-distress

Anxiety, grief and loss of wellbeing tied to climate change and the loss of home places, worst among young people and communities facing repeated disasters.

Also: eco-anxiety, solastalgia, climate grief

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Social isolation and loneliness epidemichealth.mental.social-isolation-epidemic

Widespread loneliness and loss of social contact, especially among older and young people, raising the risk of depression, dementia, heart disease and early death.

Also: loneliness epidemic, social disconnection, Social isolation and loneliness.

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Mass psychogenic illness outbreakhealth.mental.mass-psychogenic-illness

Rapid spread of real physical symptoms through a group, such as a school or workplace, without a toxic or infectious cause, driven by fear and social transmission.

Also: mass sociogenic illness, epidemic hysteria

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · districtPredictability · unpredictable
Gambling harm surgehealth.mental.gambling-harm-surge

A rise in addictive and harmful gambling, accelerated by online and mobile betting, causing debt, family breakdown, depression and suicide.

Also: online gambling harm, problem gambling

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk

Noncommunicable disease surges health.ncd

Long-running rises in chronic, non-infectious disease driven by diet, tobacco, pollution, ageing and gaps in care; they build slowly but carry most of the world’s illness burden.

Cardiovascular disease surgehealth.ncd.cardiovascular-surge

Rising rates of heart attack, stroke and high blood pressure, driven by diet, inactivity, pollution and untreated risk factors, causing early death and disability.

Also: heart attack and stroke surge, hypertension epidemic, high blood pressure burden, Rising non-communicable disease burden, NCD epidemic, obesity epidemic, chronic disease surge.

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Diabetes epidemichealth.ncd.diabetes-epidemic

Fast growth in diabetes across populations, leading to blindness, kidney failure, amputation and heart disease where screening and treatment lag behind.

Also: type 2 diabetes epidemic, diabetes surge

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Obesity epidemichealth.ncd.obesity-epidemic

Population-wide rise in excess body weight from food environments and sedentary living, raising the risk of diabetes, heart disease, cancers and joint disease.

Also: overweight epidemic, childhood obesity

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Cancer burden risehealth.ncd.cancer-burden-rise

Growing numbers of cancer cases from ageing, tobacco, infection, pollution and lifestyle, outpacing diagnosis and treatment capacity and causing avoidable deaths.

Also: cancer surge, rising cancer incidence

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Chronic respiratory disease burdenhealth.ncd.chronic-respiratory-burden

Lasting lung disease such as chronic obstructive disease and asthma, worsened by smoke, dust and air pollution, causing breathlessness, hospital stays and early death.

Also: COPD, chronic obstructive lung disease, asthma burden.

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Chronic kidney disease surgehealth.ncd.chronic-kidney-disease

Rising chronic kidney damage, including clusters among outdoor workers linked to heat, dehydration and toxicants, that leads to kidney failure where dialysis is scarce.

Also: kidney disease of unknown cause, heat-stress nephropathy.

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk
Dementia burden growthhealth.ncd.dementia-burden

Growing numbers of people living with dementia as populations age, straining families, long-term care systems and health budgets for years.

Also: Alzheimer’s disease burden, neurodegenerative disease rise

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Post-infection chronic illnesshealth.ncd.post-infection-chronic-illness

Long-lasting fatigue, organ damage or disability that follows an infection wave, removing people from work and school and adding a hidden care burden.

Also: long COVID, post-viral fatigue, post-acute infection syndrome.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Tobacco and nicotine use epidemichealth.ncd.tobacco-nicotine-epidemic

Widespread use of tobacco and nicotine products, including new products taken up by young people, that drives cancer, heart and lung disease.

Also: smoking epidemic, vaping uptake, nicotine addiction

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Harmful alcohol use burdenhealth.ncd.harmful-alcohol-use

Heavy and harmful drinking across a population that causes liver disease, cancers, injuries, violence and family harm.

Also: alcohol-related harm, binge drinking

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Chronic care interruptionhealth.ncd.chronic-care-interruption

Sudden loss of ongoing treatment such as dialysis, insulin or cancer care during a disaster, conflict or shortage, turning stable chronic illness into emergencies.

Also: dialysis interruption, insulin access loss, treatment interruption.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · nowcast-only

Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency health.nutrition

Harm to health from too little, too much or the wrong food; distinct from the food crises that cause it, because these are the bodily conditions that health and nutrition systems track and treat.

Acute malnutrition surgehealth.nutrition.acute-malnutrition-surge

A rapid rise in dangerous weight loss among young children and other vulnerable people during food crises, disease outbreaks or conflict, sharply raising the risk of death.

Also: wasting, severe acute malnutrition, child wasting surge.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonalGlobal risk
Chronic undernutrition and stuntinghealth.nutrition.chronic-undernutrition

Long-term poor nutrition and repeated infection in early childhood that stunt growth and brain development, reducing lifelong health, learning and earnings.

Also: stunting, child growth failure

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Micronutrient deficiencyhealth.nutrition.micronutrient-deficiency

Widespread lack of essential vitamins and minerals in diets, causing anaemia, blindness, weakened immunity and birth defects even where calories are sufficient.

Also: hidden hunger, vitamin A deficiency, iron-deficiency anaemia, zinc deficiency.

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Nutritional deficiency disease outbreakhealth.nutrition.deficiency-disease-outbreak

Outbreaks of classic deficiency diseases in camps, prisons or aid-dependent populations living on narrow rations, causing nerve, skin and heart damage.

Also: scurvy outbreak, pellagra outbreak, beriberi outbreak

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · districtPredictability · statistical
Unhealthy diet transitionhealth.nutrition.unhealthy-diet-transition

A shift in national diets towards highly processed foods high in sugar, salt and fat, driving obesity and chronic disease alongside persistent undernutrition.

Also: ultra-processed diet shift, nutrition transition

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Crop nutrient declinehealth.nutrition.crop-nutrient-decline

Loss of protein, iron and zinc in staple crops grown under higher carbon dioxide and heat, quietly deepening deficiency in populations that rely on those staples.

Also: falling food nutrient density, carbon dioxide nutrient dilution.

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging riskPlanetary risk

Occupational disease and injury health.occupational

Harm that arises from exposure at work; grouped together because workplace standards, inspection and compensation systems are the main line of defence against each.

Occupational lung diseasehealth.occupational.occupational-lung-disease

Scarring and disease of the lungs from breathing mineral dusts, fibres or fumes at work, including resurgent silicosis among stone workers, causing disability and death.

Also: silicosis, pneumoconiosis, engineered stone silicosis, black lung.

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · permanentFootprint · regionPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk
Occupational heat strainhealth.occupational.occupational-heat-strain

Heat stress among outdoor and factory workers that causes collapse, kidney injury, accidents and lost working hours as hot days become more common.

Also: worker heat stress, outdoor worker heat illness.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · forecastableGlobal riskEmerging risk
Occupational cancerhealth.occupational.occupational-cancer

Cancers caused by exposure at work to carcinogenic dusts, chemicals, fumes, radiation or night shifts, often appearing decades after exposure.

Also: work-related cancer, workplace carcinogen exposure

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Occupational chemical poisoninghealth.occupational.occupational-chemical-poisoning

Acute or chronic poisoning of workers by solvents, metals, fumigants or other industrial chemicals through poor controls, protective equipment or ventilation.

Also: solvent poisoning, workplace poisoning

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · districtPredictability · statistical
Workplace injury burdenhealth.occupational.workplace-injury-burden

Deaths and disabling injuries from falls, machinery, vehicles and collapses at work, highest in construction, farming, fishing and informal labour.

Also: occupational injury, work accidents, fatal work injury.

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · instantaneousDuration · momentaryFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical

Health system capacity failure health.system

Slow or sudden loss of the people, money, trust and information that a health system runs on; each raises the toll of every disease hazard.

Health workforce shortagehealth.system.health-workforce-shortage

Too few doctors, nurses, midwives and community health workers because of burnout, migration, low pay or deaths, leaving services unstaffed and care delayed.

Also: health worker exodus, clinician burnout, nurse shortage.

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Health worker industrial actionhealth.system.health-worker-strike

Prolonged strikes or walkouts by health staff that suspend clinics, surgery and outreach, delaying care for large populations.

Also: doctors’ strike, nurses’ strike

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · forecastable
Health financing collapsehealth.system.health-financing-collapse

Sudden loss of public, donor or insurance funding for health that closes programmes, cuts medicine supply and halts disease control.

Also: health aid cuts, donor withdrawal, health budget collapse.

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Catastrophic out-of-pocket health spendinghealth.system.catastrophic-health-spending

Households pushed into poverty by direct payments for care, or forced to forgo treatment, as costs rise or financial protection is withdrawn.

Also: medical impoverishment, health cost crisis

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Vaccine confidence collapsehealth.system.vaccine-confidence-collapse

Loss of public trust in vaccines, fed by misinformation, politicisation or a safety scare, that lowers uptake and lets eliminated diseases return.

Also: vaccine hesitancy, anti-vaccine movement, vaccine refusal

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskExponential risk
Essential health service disruptionhealth.system.essential-service-disruption

Interruption of routine services such as primary care, screening, immunisation and disease programmes during crises, causing excess deaths that outlast the crisis.

Also: primary care collapse, routine service disruption

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · nowcast-only
Disease surveillance failurehealth.system.disease-surveillance-failure

Loss or neglect of the systems that detect and report outbreaks, so epidemics grow unseen and responses start late.

Also: surveillance blind spot, outbreak detection failure

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Health facility loss of functionhealth.system.health-facility-failure

Hospitals and clinics that stop working because of flooding, fire, power or water loss or structural damage, forcing evacuation of patients when need is highest.

Also: hospital evacuation, hospital shutdown

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · cityPredictability · nowcast-only
Global health cooperation breakdownhealth.system.global-health-cooperation-breakdown

Erosion of international agreements, funding and data sharing for health, weakening joint outbreak response and leaving countries to face epidemics alone.

Also: withdrawal from international health cooperation, pandemic preparedness gap.

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · unpredictableGlobal riskEmerging risk
02Beziehungen

260 expert relations

Triggers, amplifications, compound pairs and reductions from the Hazard Standard expert model; 59 lead out of this domain into others.

Von Art An Mechanismus Confidence
Tropischer Wirbelsturm trigger Dengue epidemic standing water and displacement raise mosquito exposure low
Tropischer Wirbelsturm trigger Leptospirosis outbreak floodwater contact with contaminated soil low
Tropischer Wirbelsturm trigger Locust swarm cyclone rain creates breeding conditions medium
Intense rainfall amplify Dengue epidemic standing water adds mosquito breeding sites medium
Intense rainfall amplify Rift Valley fever outbreak flooded ground hatches infected mosquito eggs medium
Intense rainfall amplify Malaria resurgence pools lengthen the transmission season medium
Intense rainfall amplify Bacterial and fungal crop disease leaf wetness spreads fungal and bacterial disease medium
Intense rainfall trigger Waterborne disease outbreak overflow contaminates drinking water medium
Intense rainfall trigger Leptospirosis outbreak floodwater carries rodent urine into contact with people medium
Intense rainfall trigger Locust swarm rain after dry spells creates breeding conditions medium
Hitzewelle amplify Foodborne illness outbreak faster bacterial growth in food medium
Hitzewelle amplify Dengue epidemic warmth speeds vector development and virus replication medium
Cold wave reduces Dengue epidemic cold suppresses mosquito activity medium
Hard freeze reduces Crop insect pest outbreak winter kill of overwintering pests medium
Dust storm amplify Bacterial meningitis outbreak dry, dusty season irritates airways and spreads carriage low
Tropical Pacific climate swing trigger Dengue epidemic temperature and rainfall anomalies shape vector habitat medium
Tropical Pacific climate swing trigger Rift Valley fever outbreak anomalous rainfall in vulnerable dry regions medium
Tropical Pacific climate swing amplify Crop insect pest outbreak weather anomalies favour pest growth low
Flusshochwasser trigger Cholera outbreak contaminated water and failed sanitation medium
Flusshochwasser trigger Waterborne disease outbreak contamination of supplies high
Flusshochwasser trigger Leptospirosis outbreak contact with contaminated floodwater high
Flusshochwasser trigger Faecal-oral hepatitis outbreak faecal contamination of water medium
Flusshochwasser amplify Snakebite envenoming flooding pushes snakes into homes and fields low
Surface-water flood amplify Waterborne disease outbreak mixing of floodwater and sewage medium
Meteorological drought amplify Anthrax outbreak stressed livestock graze near spore-bearing soil low
Meteorological drought amplify Crop insect pest outbreak stressed crops and shifted pest cycles medium
Water supply shortfall trigger Cholera outbreak use of unsafe sources medium
Marine heatwave amplify Aquaculture disease outbreak heat-stressed farmed stock medium
Permafrost thaw trigger Anthrax outbreak thawing exposes old carcasses and spores low
Volcanic ash fall amplify Tuberculosis surge fine ash adds respiratory stress low
Deforestation amplify Zoonotic spillover event more contact between people, wildlife and livestock medium
Deforestation amplify Malaria resurgence clearing creates breeding habitat at forest edges low
Biodiversity loss amplify Zoonotic spillover event loss of buffer species changes host communities low
Biodiversity loss amplify Tick-borne disease surge fewer predators and fewer low-competence hosts for ticks low
Human-wildlife conflict trigger Rabies outbreak bites from infected wild animals low
Outdoor air pollution episode amplify Seasonal influenza epidemic inflamed airways raise susceptibility low
Household air pollution amplify Tuberculosis surge smoke damages lungs and immunity medium
Solid waste mismanagement amplify Dengue epidemic discarded containers hold water for mosquitoes medium
Hazardous and clinical waste release amplify Chronic viral hepatitis B and C burden sharps injuries from clinical waste low
Untreated wastewater discharge trigger Waterborne disease outbreak pathogens in receiving water high
Untreated wastewater discharge trigger Cholera outbreak faecal contamination of water used for drinking medium
Untreated wastewater discharge amplify Antimicrobial resistance resistant bacteria and drug residues released medium
Disaster and conflict debris amplify Dengue epidemic debris holds standing water low
Respiratory pandemic trigger Health-system overload patients exceed beds and staff high
Respiratory pandemic trigger Supply-chain disruption absenteeism and closures high
Respiratory pandemic trigger Medical supply shortage demand surge for protective and medical goods high
Respiratory pandemic trigger Financial market and banking shock abrupt fall in activity medium
Respiratory pandemic trigger Panic buying and hoarding fear of shortages medium
Respiratory pandemic amplify Emergency-response overload responders fall ill or are diverted to the outbreak medium
Seasonal influenza epidemic amplify Health-system overload winter admission peaks medium
Zoonotic influenza spillover trigger Respiratory pandemic adaptation to sustained human spread low
Coronavirus outbreak trigger Respiratory pandemic sustained spread across regions medium
Coronavirus outbreak amplify Health-system overload hospital clusters and staff infections medium
Tuberculosis surge amplify Antimicrobial resistance incomplete treatment selects resistant strains medium
Measles outbreak amplify Health-system overload paediatric admissions rise low
Polio outbreak trigger Medical supply shortage vaccine demand for outbreak campaigns low
Cholera outbreak amplify Health-system overload rapid surge of severe dehydration medium
Foodborne illness outbreak trigger Food supply-chain breakdown product recalls low
Dengue epidemic amplify Health-system overload surges of severe cases medium
Chikungunya and Zika outbreak compound-with Dengue epidemic the same mosquito spreads both, so outbreaks overlap medium
Malaria resurgence amplify Acute food crisis illness reduces labour in planting and harvest low
West Nile and Culex-borne virus outbreak amplify Health-system overload neuroinvasive cases need intensive care low
Trypanosomiasis outbreak amplify Acute food crisis illness and herd losses cut farm output low
Yellow fever outbreak trigger Medical supply shortage vaccine stock runs short in large outbreaks medium
Ebola and Marburg outbreak trigger Health-system overload isolation needs and health-worker infections high
Ebola and Marburg outbreak trigger Trade restriction or embargo travel and trade restrictions medium
Lassa fever outbreak amplify Health-system overload infections in health workers low
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever outbreak amplify Health-system overload hospital-acquired spread to staff low
Sexually transmitted infection resurgence amplify HIV-Epidemie genital ulcers and inflammation raise transmission medium
Zoonotic spillover event trigger Coronavirus outbreak a novel virus establishes in people low
Zoonotic spillover event trigger Ebola and Marburg outbreak contact with infected wildlife low
Zoonotic spillover event trigger Nipah and henipavirus outbreak contact with food or animals contaminated by bats low
Vector-borne livestock disease compound-with Rift Valley fever outbreak the same mosquito-borne outbreak strikes herds and herders together medium
Brucellosis outbreak amplify Acute food crisis abortions in herds cut milk and offspring low
Mpox outbreak amplify Medical supply shortage demand for limited vaccine low
Prion disease cluster trigger Trade restriction or embargo bans on beef and feed exports high
Smallpox reintroduction trigger Health-system overload isolation and mass vaccination demand high
Smallpox reintroduction trigger Medical supply shortage vaccine stockpiles drawn down medium
Swine fever epizootic trigger Food supply-chain breakdown culling and movement bans high
Swine fever epizootic trigger Trade restriction or embargo import bans on pork high
Swine fever epizootic trigger Commodity price shock pork supply falls medium
Foot-and-mouth epizootic trigger Trade restriction or embargo export bans on livestock products high
Foot-and-mouth epizootic trigger Food supply-chain breakdown movement standstill and culling medium
Poultry epizootic trigger Zoonotic influenza spillover close contact with infected birds medium
Poultry epizootic trigger Food supply-chain breakdown flock culling medium
Ruminant respiratory epizootic amplify Acute food crisis herd losses in pastoral households medium
Screwworm infestation trigger Trade restriction or embargo animal movement controls medium
Livestock disease outbreak amplify Acute food crisis loss of herds that households depend on medium
Aquaculture disease outbreak trigger Food supply-chain breakdown farm stock losses medium
Bacterial and fungal crop disease trigger Acute food crisis harvest losses in staple crops medium
Bacterial and fungal crop disease amplify Simultaneous multi-region crop failure pathogens spread across producing regions low
Plant virus epidemic amplify Acute food crisis staple crop yield losses medium
Crop insect pest outbreak trigger Acute food crisis crop damage medium
Locust swarm trigger Acute food crisis swarms consume crops and pasture high
Locust swarm trigger Pesticide exposure large-scale control spraying medium
Invasive species spread trigger Biodiversity loss native species outcompeted high
Invasive species spread amplify Waldbrand invasive grasses add continuous fuel medium
Antimicrobial resistance amplify Tuberculosis surge drugs stop working high
Antimicrobial resistance amplify Typhoid and paratyphoid fever resistant strains are harder to treat high
Antimicrobial resistance amplify Health-system overload longer stays and treatment failures medium
Deliberate or accidental biological-agent release trigger Health-system overload mass casualties and contact tracing high
Deliberate or accidental biological-agent release trigger Panic buying and hoarding fear after a release low
Substandard and falsified medicines amplify Antimicrobial resistance sub-therapeutic doses select resistance medium
Substandard and falsified medicines amplify Malaria resurgence treatment failure with poor-quality antimalarials medium
Adulterated alcohol poisoning trigger Health-system overload poisoning clusters need dialysis and antidotes low
Overdose epidemic amplify HIV-Epidemie shared injecting equipment medium
Overdose epidemic amplify Chronic viral hepatitis B and C burden shared injecting equipment high
Water supply failure trigger Waterborne disease outbreak people turn to unsafe sources medium
Water supply failure trigger Cholera outbreak loss of safe water and hygiene medium
Water supply failure amplify Viral diarrhoea outbreak less hand washing and unsafe stored water medium
Sewer and drain failure trigger Waterborne disease outbreak sewage enters homes, streets and water medium
Disinformation campaign amplify Measles outbreak lower vaccine uptake medium
Internal armed conflict amplify Cholera outbreak water and health services break down high
Internal armed conflict amplify Polio outbreak vaccination campaigns cannot reach children medium
Mass displacement amplify Cholera outbreak crowded camps with poor sanitation high
Mass displacement amplify Measles outbreak crowding and missed vaccination high
Mass displacement amplify Tuberculosis surge crowded shelter and interrupted treatment medium
Mass displacement amplify Shigellosis and dysentery outbreak crowding and shared latrines medium
Mass displacement amplify Diphtheria and whooping cough outbreak crowding and missed vaccination medium
Mass displacement amplify Neglected tropical disease outbreak movement into endemic areas without care low
Mass displacement amplify Plague outbreak crowding with rodents and fleas low
Acute food crisis amplify Cholera outbreak malnutrition weakens defences medium
Acute food crisis amplify Measles outbreak malnourished children die more often high
Governance breakdown amplify Polio outbreak routine immunisation stops medium
Governance breakdown amplify Other vaccine-preventable outbreak routine immunisation gaps widen low
Cold-chain failure trigger Foodborne illness outbreak perishable food kept warm medium
Medical supply shortage amplify Substandard and falsified medicines falsified products fill the gap medium
Deforestation amplify Emerging arbovirus outbreak new contact with vectors medium
Marine heatwave amplify Warm-water bacterial infection bacteria multiply in warm water medium
Hitzewelle trigger Heat-related illness surge body overheats medium
Hitzewelle amplify Preterm and low birthweight birth rise heat stress in pregnancy medium
Hitzewelle amplify Suicide rate rise heat worsens mental illness medium
Hitzewelle trigger Occupational heat strain heat at work medium
Cold wave trigger Cold-related illness surge body chills medium
Wildlife disease panzootic trigger Poultry epizootic wild birds carry virus to flocks high
Wildlife disease panzootic trigger Zoonotic spillover event infected wildlife contact people medium
Climate-driven species range shift amplify Tick-borne disease surge vectors spread into new regions medium
AI uplift for biological weapons amplify Deliberate or accidental biological-agent release more actors able to produce and release agents medium
Humid heat stress trigger Heat-related illness surge sweating stops cooling medium
Humid heat stress amplify Chronic kidney disease surge repeated dehydration injures kidneys medium
Heat-related illness surge trigger Health-system overload emergency surge medium
Heat-driven grid stress amplify Heat-related illness surge cooling lost in outages medium
Cold-wave energy crunch amplify Cold-related illness surge homes go unheated medium
Disease vector range expansion amplify Dengue epidemic vectors reach new populations medium
Disease vector range expansion amplify Tick-borne disease surge ticks reach new areas medium
Aeroallergen season intensification amplify Thunderstorm asthma more pollen to break up medium
Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread compound-with Antimicrobial resistance specific class of overall resistance medium
Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread amplify Health-system overload longer, costlier stays medium
Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread amplify Healthcare-associated infection outbreak untreatable hospital strains medium
Antimalarial and antiparasitic drug resistance amplify Malaria resurgence cures fail medium
Insecticide resistance in disease vectors amplify Malaria resurgence nets and sprays fail medium
Insecticide resistance in disease vectors amplify Dengue epidemic vector control fails medium
Antiviral drug resistance amplify HIV-Epidemie treatment failure medium
Antimicrobial development and supply failure amplify Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread no new treatments medium
Substandard and falsified medicines amplify Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread underdosing selects resistance medium
Zoonotic spillover event trigger Unknown future pathogen emergence new agent enters people medium
Unknown future pathogen emergence trigger Health-system overload surge of patients medium
Disease surveillance failure amplify Unknown future pathogen emergence late detection medium
Disease surveillance failure amplify Respiratory pandemic late detection medium
Undiagnosed illness cluster trigger Unknown future pathogen emergence early signal of new agent medium

100 more relations are in the Hazard Standard dataset.

03Risk classes

Risk classes in this domain

Risk classes are Hazard Standard tags with published criteria; a tag is not a severity value.

40 hazards

Global risk

A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it.

Risk type 5 hazards

Katastrophenrisiko

A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from.

Risk type 7 hazards

Exponential risk

A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response.

Risk type 21 hazards

Emerging risk

A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature.

Risk type 1 hazards

Existential risk

A hazard is existential when a plausible scenario for it would cause human extinction or a permanent, unrecoverable collapse of humanity’s long-term potential.

Risk type 1 hazards

Frontier technology risk

A hazard is frontier-tech when it arises from frontier or fast-advancing technology, through accident, misuse, unintended system behaviour or structural effects of its deployment.

Risk type 1 hazards

Planetary risk

A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole.

Risk type

04Im gesamten Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms, standards, learning and working groups across GCRI, GRF and GRA for the systems these hazards act on.

Propose a change to Hazard Standard

Definitions and relations are a draft for expert review; corrections follow the standards development process.