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Le Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index solutions · Public sector

Système des Nations Unies et agences humanitaires

Compare needs with intervals, watch weekly signals and plan anticipatory action from verified outlooks.

Follow a run All solutions
Page GRX-SOL-UNEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
on: watchlist saved · Monitor with watchlists and alerts6 jobs · 1 gate
  1. Watchlist and thresholds self-serve
  2. Pulse nowcast weekly
  3. Outlook update weekly
  4. Analyst review 6 hours
  5. Route the alert < 5 ms
  6. Handoff to the authority 2 hours

01Need

What this solution does

Compare needs with intervals, watch weekly signals and plan anticipatory action from verified outlooks.

Compare needs across contexts with intervals

Watch weekly signals for review

Read outlooks for anticipatory planning

02Featured run

Suivre avec des listes de veille et des alertes

Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you.

on: watchlist saved

Suivre avec des listes de veille et des alertes

Waiting for approvalTriggered by Monitoring team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Graphe
01Set up
02Sense
03Examen
04Livrer

100%
Chronologie
Job0 d2 d4 d6 dTarget
Watchlist and thresholdsYouinstant
Pulse nowcastPulse nowcast7 d
Outlook updateOutlook models7 d
Analyst reviewDuty analyst6 h
Route the alertAlert routerinstant
Handoff to the authorityDuty analyst2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 7.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Étapes
  1. Watchlist and thresholds

    Set up · You · self-serve
    Entities and domains · Thresholds and channels
    Alert router
  2. Pulse nowcast matrix · entities × domains

    Sense · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Anomaly against each place’s own history
    Pulse nowcastTested model kernels
  3. Outlook update

    Sense · Outlook models · weekly
    Calibrated probabilities refreshed
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  4. Analyst review approval

    Review · Duty analyst · 6 hours
    Signal checked against sources · Context added
    Registre PostgreSQL (sécurité au niveau des lignes)
  5. Route the alert

    Deliver · Alert router · < 5 ms
    Email, webhook or dashboard · Never framed as a warning
    Alert routerWebhooks and streaming
  6. Handoff to the authority

    Deliver · Duty analyst · 2 hours
    Names the authority that decides
    Registre PostgreSQL (sécurité au niveau des lignes)
Artefacts
Artefact Tâche Qui Étape
Watchlist Watchlist and thresholds Vous Set up
Pulse readings Pulse nowcast Pulse nowcast Sense
Outlook readings Outlook update Outlook models Sense
Reviewed signal Analyst review Duty analyst Examen
Alert Route the alert Alert router Livrer
Hand-over note Handoff to the authority Duty analyst Livrer
TerminéEn coursEn attente d'approbationEn file d'attenteÉtape d'approbationTâche matricielleVous êtes ici
Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
03Parcours

Every journey in this solution

NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Intelligence · Monitor

Suivre avec des listes de veille et des alertes

Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. 6 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX · Govern

Un signal à examiner

How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX · Govern

Demander un ensemble de scénarios

Pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100 and structured stress tests for planning and supervisory exercises. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run

04Produits

Produits et services

INSTPulse and watchlistsWeekly nowcast by country and domain with signals for review and subscriber alerts. Signals are information for review, not warnings. INSTOutlook forecastsProbabilistic outlooks at 1, 3, 12 and 36 months for defined events, with verification scorecards. OPENCountry risk profiles195 country profiles: twenty domain indices, four pillars, the composite with intervals and class, the hazard profile, Nexus couplings, instruments and sources. INSTSubnational and hexagon risk layersADM1, ADM2 and H3 layers for site screening, planning and allocation.
05Séries

Series most read

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-01Global WaterAccess, scarcity, quality, floods and droughts, groundwater depletion, transboundary dependency and the couplings of water to energy, food, health and nature. GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency. GS-04Global HealthHealth security capacity, epidemic emergence and spread, heat and air-quality burden, health system stress and access. GS-06Global DevelopmentPoverty, inequality, human development, demographic pressure and displacement as the ground on which shocks become losses. GS-08Global DisasterMulti-hazard exposure, disaster losses and mortality, return-period losses, protection gaps and coping capacity. GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX. GS-14Global Policy and institutionsGovernance weakness, state capacity, rule of law, preparedness frameworks and the institutional ability to anticipate and adapt. GS-15Global Science and engineeringThe scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration.

Talk to the Secretariat

Enterprise, public-sector and sovereign work is agreed with GCRI Canada.

Contact

Statut

La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.

Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas

NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.

Les signaux Pulse et les probabilités de perspective sont des informations soumises à l'examen des autorités compétentes, jamais des alertes publiques ; les alertes officielles viennent uniquement des autorités mandatées.

Institutions et sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.