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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index Models · Test · on: model version submitted

Uji dan validasi model

Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use.

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Halaman GRX-JRN-VALIDATE-MODELEdisi Edisi Dasar 2026Batas akhir bukti 2026-09-30Pekerjaan 7Nilai belum diterbitkanMetode v1.0.0-draft
on: model version submitted · Test and validate a model7 jobs · 1 gate · 11 checks
  1. Model version submitted instant
  2. Backtest 6 hours
  3. Out-of-sample scores 2 hours
  4. Benchmark 2 hours
  5. Kartu model 1 hari
  6. Gerbang persetujuan 10 hari
  7. Promote to production instant

01Uji

Uji dan validasi model

Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use.

on: model version submitted

Uji dan validasi model

In progressTriggered by Model owner7 jobs1 approval gate11 checks1 deployment

Grafik
01Kirim
02Uji
03Document
04Approve
05Approve

100%
Linimasa
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Model version submittedYouinstant
BacktestVerification engine6 h
Out-of-sample scoresVerification engine2 h
BenchmarkVerification engine2 h
Model cardYou1 d
Approval gateMethod stewards10 d
Promote to productionNXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Platforminstant

End to end on the longest path: about 11.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Langkah
  1. Model version submitted

    Submit · You · instant
    Code, data and seed pinned · Intended use declared
    Model LabPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  2. Backtest

    Test · Verification engine · 6 hours
    Rolling-origin backtest · Hindcasts over the archive
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  3. Out-of-sample scores

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Brier and CRPS · Reliability and ROC area
    Verification engine
  4. Benchmark

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Against established indices and naive baselines
    Verification engineindicator standard
  5. Kartu model

    Document · You · 1 day
    Intended use and limits · Data, method and scores
    Replication packs
  6. Gerbang persetujuan persetujuan

    Approve · Method stewards · 10 days
    Disposition recorded
    Buku besar PostgreSQL (keamanan tingkat baris)
  7. Promote to production

    Approve · NXS-GRX Platform · instant
    Version pinned in production · Rollback kept
    Model LabPublic cut API
Artefak
Artefak Pekerjaan Siapa Tahap
Version record Model version submitted Anda Kirim
Backtest report Backtest Verification engine Uji
Scorecard Out-of-sample scores Verification engine Uji
Benchmark table Benchmark Verification engine Uji
Kartu model Kartu model Anda Document
Approval record Gerbang persetujuan Method stewards Approve
Release tag Promote to production NXS-GRX Platform Approve
SelesaiSedang berjalanMenunggu persetujuanQueuedApproval gateTest jobDeploymentYou are here
Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
02Untuk siapa

Solutions that use this journey

Sektor publik

Bank sentral dan otoritas pengawas

Rancang skenario pengawasan, baca keterkaitan sistemik, dan replikasi metode.

See the solution

03Teknologi

7 components

Each job names the component it runs on; open a job on the canvas for its steps, checks and artefacts.

Model LabPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Verification engineMonte Carlo engineindicator standardReplication packsPublic cut API

Part of Models of the Index: Scenario pathways, stress tests, tail and exceedance analytics, coupling contagion and forecasting on the open method library, with tests and model cards.

Start this journey

Talk to the Secretariat to start this journey with your team.

Kontak

Status

Metodologi, struktur, dan definisi The Global Risks Index merupakan draf kerja persiapan (2026), yang diedarkan untuk ditinjau dan dikomentari, bukan untuk diterapkan. Tidak ada nilai yang ditampilkan sampai sebuah edisi dirilis dari pemotongan bukti yang diatur; nilai-nilai tersebut kemudian memuat interval, kelas, sumber, dan jalur koreksinya. Simulator menjalankan metode yang diterbitkan pada angka yang Anda pilih dan tidak pernah menampilkan nilai NXS-GRX.

Apa yang bukan NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX adalah informasi riset dan analitik risiko. NXS-GRX bukan peringkat kredit atau ESG dan tidak memakai skala peringkat, bukan acuan untuk instrumen keuangan, bukan statistik resmi, bukan peringatan darurat atau klasifikasi resmi, dan bukan nasihat. NXS-GRX tidak boleh digunakan untuk menilai orang perseorangan. Kelas risiko adalah pita pada skala yang diterbitkan, tidak pernah peringkat negara atau orang.

Lembaga dan sumber

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Setiap nilai memuat atribusi sumbernya, yang tetap memiliki lisensinya masing-masing. Nama-nama eksternal dikutip semata-mata untuk interoperabilitas. Teks yang disusun Nexus direncanakan berlisensi CC BY 4.0 saat dirilis.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.