Antariksa dan dekat Bumi
Hazards that arrive from or act in space: solar-terrestrial storms, impacts and orbital debris.
2 families, 17 hazards
Hazards that arrive from or act in space: solar-terrestrial storms, impacts and orbital debris. Organised by space; families by driving process.
Solar-terrestrial storms space.solar-storm
Hazards that start at the sun and act through the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere on technology (grids, radio, satellites, navigation, aircrew dose); they reach the whole sunlit or night side at once.
A disturbance of Earth’s magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.
Also: magnetic storm, aurora storm
A burst of X-rays from a solar flare that ionises the sunlit upper atmosphere and blacks out high-frequency radio there.
Also: radio blackout
A stream of energetic solar particles that raises the radiation dose of aircrew and astronauts and damages satellite electronics.
Also: solar energetic particles
Irregular electron density in the upper atmosphere that degrades radio links and satellite positioning.
Also: ionospheric storm, scintillation
Slowly varying currents driven through long conductors, such as grids and pipelines, by a changing magnetic field, overheating transformers and corroding pipes.
Also: GIC
Charging, single-event upsets or extra drag from the space environment that disable or shorten the life of satellites.
Swelling of the upper atmosphere during solar and geomagnetic activity that drags low satellites down, losing spacecraft and degrading orbit and collision predictions.
Also: satellite drag, atmospheric drag increase
A build-up of high-energy electrons trapped in the radiation belts that charges and damages satellite electronics for days after a storm.
Also: killer electrons, relativistic electron event
A widening region of weak geomagnetic field over the South Atlantic where trapped radiation dips low and repeatedly upsets satellites and orbiting crews.
Also: South Atlantic Anomaly
Impacts and orbital hazards space.orbital
Bodies and debris that strike, enter or collide around Earth, whether natural or made by people.
A comet or asteroid on a path that brings it close enough to Earth to carry a non-zero impact probability.
Also: asteroid, comet
A natural body striking the surface, producing a crater, a shock wave and ejecta.
Also: asteroid impact
A natural object breaking up in the atmosphere and releasing a blast wave that shatters glass and damages structures over a wide area.
Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.
Also: orbital debris
Collisions that create fragments which cause further collisions, until an orbital band becomes unusable.
Also: Kessler cascade
A spacecraft or rocket stage falling back without control and scattering fragments over inhabited or sea areas.
Also: falling spacecraft
A launch, docking or on-orbit failure that endangers crew, spacecraft or people and property below.
Also: launch failure
Passage of Earth and its satellites through a dense stream of comet debris, raising the chance of hypervelocity hits that damage spacecraft.
Also: meteor storm, meteoroid impact on spacecraft
54 expert relations
Triggers, amplifications, compound pairs and reductions from the Hazard Standard expert model; 24 lead out of this domain into others.
| Dari | Jenis | Ke | Mekanisme | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Badai geomagnetik | trigger |
Geomagnetically induced current | rapid change of the geomagnetic field | tinggi |
| Badai geomagnetik | trigger |
Ionospheric disturbance | storm energy deposited in the upper atmosphere | tinggi |
| Badai geomagnetik | trigger |
Satellite space-environment anomaly | charging and increased drag | tinggi |
| Badai geomagnetik | trigger |
Satellite-navigation disruption | ionospheric gradients degrade positioning | medium |
| Badai geomagnetik | amplify |
Uncontrolled re-entry | heated upper atmosphere increases orbital decay | medium |
| Solar flare radio blackout | trigger |
Telecommunications outage | sunlit high-frequency radio absorbed | tinggi |
| Solar flare radio blackout | trigger |
Emergency communications failure | loss of high-frequency links | medium |
| Solar radiation storm | trigger |
Satellite space-environment anomaly | energetic particles upset electronics | tinggi |
| Solar radiation storm | trigger |
Telecommunications outage | polar radio absorption | medium |
| Solar radiation storm | trigger |
Port or hub closure | polar flight routes closed or diverted | rendah |
| Ionospheric disturbance | trigger |
Satellite-navigation disruption | scintillation degrades satellite signals | tinggi |
| Ionospheric disturbance | trigger |
Telecommunications outage | radio propagation changes | medium |
| Geomagnetically induced current | trigger |
Widespread power outage | transformer heating and protective tripping | medium |
| Geomagnetically induced current | amplify |
Pipeline rupture | accelerated corrosion of long pipelines | rendah |
| Satellite space-environment anomaly | trigger |
Satellite-navigation disruption | navigation satellite outage | medium |
| Satellite space-environment anomaly | trigger |
Telecommunications outage | communication satellite outage | medium |
| Satellite space-environment anomaly | trigger |
Space debris | a dead satellite becomes uncontrolled debris | rendah |
| Near-Earth object approach | trigger |
Airburst | the body breaks up in the atmosphere | medium |
| Near-Earth object approach | trigger |
Meteorite impact | the body reaches the ground | medium |
| Meteorite impact | trigger |
Tsunami | an ocean impact displaces water | rendah |
| Meteorite impact | trigger |
Kebakaran hutan dan lahan | thermal radiation and hot ejecta | medium |
| Meteorite impact | trigger |
Abrupt climate-system shift | a very large impact loads the atmosphere with dust and soot | rendah |
| Airburst | trigger |
Facade and cladding failure | blast wave breaks windows over a wide area | tinggi |
| Airburst | trigger |
Large forest disturbance | blast flattens forest | medium |
| Space debris | trigger |
Orbital collision cascade | collisions create more fragments | medium |
| Space debris | trigger |
Satellite space-environment anomaly | small-debris strikes damage spacecraft | medium |
| Orbital collision cascade | trigger |
Satellite-navigation disruption | loss of navigation satellites | rendah |
| Orbital collision cascade | trigger |
Telecommunications outage | loss of communication satellites | rendah |
| Spaceflight accident | trigger |
Space debris | break-up in orbit | medium |
| Spaceflight accident | trigger |
Toxic gas release | propellant release at the launch or crash site | medium |
| Meteorite impact | trigger |
Impact winter | large impacts loft dust and soot | tinggi |
| Comet shower | amplify |
Meteorite impact | more comets cross Earth’s orbit | medium |
| Solar superflare | trigger |
Badai geomagnetik | an extreme ejection strikes the magnetosphere | tinggi |
| Solar superflare | trigger |
Geomagnetically induced current | extreme field changes drive currents in grids | tinggi |
| Solar superflare | trigger |
Satellite space-environment anomaly | radiation and charging disable spacecraft | tinggi |
| Geomagnetic reversal or excursion | amplify |
Satellite space-environment anomaly | weaker shielding lets more particles reach orbits | medium |
| Geomagnetic reversal or excursion | amplify |
Solar radiation storm | weaker field admits particles to lower latitudes | medium |
| Badai geomagnetik | trigger |
Thermospheric drag surge | storm heating expands the thermosphere | tinggi |
| Badai geomagnetik | trigger |
Radiation-belt electron enhancement | storm accelerates trapped electrons | tinggi |
| Badai geomagnetik | trigger |
Satellite communications outage | satellite anomalies and drag | medium |
| Thermospheric drag surge | amplify |
Uncontrolled re-entry | drag brings satellites down early | tinggi |
| Radiation-belt electron enhancement | trigger |
Satellite space-environment anomaly | deep charging of spacecraft | tinggi |
| South Atlantic weak-field anomaly | amplify |
Satellite space-environment anomaly | spacecraft pass through dense trapped radiation | tinggi |
| Meteoroid stream encounter | trigger |
Satellite space-environment anomaly | impact plasma and hits disturb spacecraft | rendah |
| Meteoroid stream encounter | amplify |
Space debris | hits fragment spacecraft | rendah |
| Nuclear war | trigger |
Satellite space-environment anomaly | high-altitude bursts damage satellites | rendah |
| Geomagnetically induced current | trigger |
Loss of large power transformers | induced currents overheat transformer cores | medium |
| Geomagnetically induced current | trigger |
Low-inertia grid instability | induced currents disturb transformers and voltage | medium |
| Non-kinetic counterspace attack | trigger |
Space debris | destroyed satellites fragment | tinggi |
| Orbital collision cascade | trigger |
Constellation-wide service failure | debris disables many satellites | medium |
| Destructive anti-satellite strike | trigger |
Space debris | destructive tests create fragments | tinggi |
| Mega-constellation orbital congestion | amplify |
Orbital collision cascade | dense shells raise collision rates | tinggi |
| Mega-constellation orbital congestion | amplify |
Space debris | failed satellites left in crowded orbits | medium |
| Satellite interference with sky observation | amplify |
Near-Earth object approach | streaks and glare degrade detection surveys | medium |
Risk classes in this domain
Risk classes are Hazard Standard tags with published criteria; a tag is not a severity value.
Global risk
A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it.
Risk type
3 hazardsRisiko katastrofik
A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from.
Risk type
2 hazardsExistential risk
A hazard is existential when a plausible scenario for it would cause human extinction or a permanent, unrecoverable collapse of humanity’s long-term potential.
Risk type
1 hazardsEmerging risk
A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature.
Risk type
1 hazardsExponential risk
A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response.
Risk type
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms, standards, learning and working groups across GCRI, GRF and GRA for the systems these hazards act on.
Propose a change to Hazard Standard
Definitions and relations are a draft for expert review; corrections follow the standards development process.
Status
Metodologi, struktur, dan definisi The Global Risks Index merupakan draf kerja persiapan (2026), yang diedarkan untuk ditinjau dan dikomentari, bukan untuk diterapkan. Tidak ada nilai yang ditampilkan sampai sebuah edisi dirilis dari pemotongan bukti yang diatur; nilai-nilai tersebut kemudian memuat interval, kelas, sumber, dan jalur koreksinya. Simulator menjalankan metode yang diterbitkan pada angka yang Anda pilih dan tidak pernah menampilkan nilai NXS-GRX.
Apa yang bukan NXS-GRX
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Lembaga dan sumber
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.