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I-Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-12 · Exponential technology series

Positioning, navigation and timing

Dependency of power, telecom, finance and transport on positioning and timing signals; jamming, spoofing and space weather.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-12Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-12 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices

3

Space-weather exposure · Infrastructure fragility · Cyber risk.

Indicators

60

3 index domains

Hazard families

21

Space and near-Earth · Information and cyber-physical systems · Built systems.

Methods

64

Critical infrastructure and industrial systems · Hazard science.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
domain indices
60
indicators in scope
3
hazard domains
4
client groups

01Scope

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which systems fail without timing signals?
  2. How widespread is jamming and spoofing exposure?
  3. What backup exists?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Positioning, navigation and timing index is built

Graph7 nodes
Graph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings

100%
List
  1. Space-weather exposure

    Domain index · IDX · SPC
    0–10 index of space-weather exposure as the product of the space-weather hazard and space-service dependence sub-indices; mostly modelled and expert inputs, so its grade is capped.
  2. Infrastructure fragility

    Domain index · IDX · INF
    Index of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
  3. Cyber risk

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Positioning, navigation and timing index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-12
    Dependency of power, telecom, finance and transport on positioning and timing signals; jamming, spoofing and space weather.
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-12 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Positioning, navigation and timing index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Isalathiso Ixabiso Tshintsha Change % 90% interval Class · probability Trend Range
Space-weather exposureNXS-GRX · SPC – – – – –
Infrastructure fragilityNXS-GRX · INF – – – – –
Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –

Domains read: Space environment, Infrastructure, Cyber and digital.

04Indicators

60 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
INF · 24CYB · 13SPC · 6
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicator Domain Sub-domain Component Unit Levels Crosswalks
Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Flood protection design standardIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard HAZ Flood coping capacity a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Built-up surface areaIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area HAZ Ukuchaphazeleka context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Built-up area in high-hazard zonesIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed HAZ Ukuchaphazeleka exposure km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Road densityIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Municipal solid waste managed in controlled facilitiesIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
Wastewater flows safely treatedIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
Severe geomagnetic storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.severe_geomagnetic_storm_days SPC Space weather hazard d/a GLOBAL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0101 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-geo
Geoelectric field amplitude at 100-year return periodIND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp100 SPC Space weather hazard V/km COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Strong solar radiation storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.radiation_storm_days SPC Space weather hazard d/a GLOBAL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0104 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-ene
GDP in GNSS-dependent activities, shareIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Critical services relying on satellites without backup, shareIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
High-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones, shareIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Travel time to the nearest health facilityIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Urban population, share of totalIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Urban population growthIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
Urban population living in slumsIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Power outages experienced by firms in a typical monthIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
System average interruption duration (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Rural population within 2 km of an all-season roadIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.1.1
Logistics performanceIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Liner shipping connectivity relative to the frontierIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Air passengers carried per capitaIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc INF Transport coping capacity {passengers}/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR
Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Road and rail network in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share INF Transport exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Population covered by a mobile network, by technologyIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.c.1
Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitantsIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband INF Digital connectivity coping capacity /10*2 COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2
International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Power grid resilienceIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Water supply network resilienceIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Critical facilities with 72-hour back-up powerIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Water supply assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Power generation and grid assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Lifeline facilities in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Infrastructure investment gap, share of GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Critical infrastructure units damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2
Health facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
Disruptions to basic services attributed to disastersIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-5
Direct economic loss to critical infrastructure, share of GDPIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index scoreIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index tierIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI technical measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI organisational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI capacity development measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI cooperation measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
National computer incident response team in operationIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Significant cyber incidents per million populationIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Artificial intelligence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Population within 15 minutes of emergency servicesIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05Iingozi

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
SpaceBuiltInformation175HAZARDS
3 hazard domains (inner ring) and 21 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Family Domain Iingozi Count
Solar-terrestrial storms Space and near-Earth Geomagnetic storm, Solar flare radio blackout, Solar radiation storm, Ionospheric disturbance, Geomagnetically induced current, Satellite space-environment anomaly, Thermospheric drag surge, Radiation-belt electron enhancement … 9
Impacts and orbital hazards Space and near-Earth Near-Earth object approach, Meteorite impact, Airburst, Space debris, Orbital collision cascade, Uncontrolled re-entry, Spaceflight accident, Meteoroid stream encounter 8
Malicious compromise Information and cyber-physical systems Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Information and cyber-physical systems Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Information and cyber-physical systems Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Information and cyber-physical systems Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Information and cyber-physical systems Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Information and cyber-physical systems Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
Structural and civil failure Built systems Building collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture 8
Utility and communication network outage Built systems Widespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure 6
Transport accidents Built systems Air transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash 5
Industrial and process accidents Built systems Industrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire … 15
Energy system instability and shortfall Built systems Low-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall … 22
Water and wastewater system failure Built systems Wastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply … 9
Telecom and data-centre failure Built systems Data-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss 8
Space-based service loss Built systems Navigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure 4
Seabed infrastructure damage Built systems Subsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage 3
Transport network disruption Built systems Air traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident … 12
Food system infrastructure failure Built systems Food storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production 5
Urban and building-stock stress Built systems Building overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure 6
Ageing and degraded infrastructure Built systems Infrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage 7
06Methods

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

27 methods

Critical infrastructure and industrial systems

Asset Reliability · Process Safety · HAZOP · FMEA FMECA · Industrial Fault Tree · Industrial Event Tree · LOPA …

37 methods

Hazard science

Hazard Intensity Footprint Screening · Earthquake Hazard · Earthquake Ground Motion · Earthquake Rupture · Liquefaction · Landslide · Tsunami …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

08Iingxelo

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-12
Edition status
planned
Subject
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Positioning, navigation and timing series (GRX-SER-XT-12), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-12/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000099.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-12:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.SPC.weather.space_weather_exposure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragility:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Country profiles All series

Imeko

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.